Fletcher UK & European Offices: The Mission Critical Imperative of Decision Intelligence

Thoughts on the assessment of risk and the ongoing need to embrace the power of commercial due diligence in a consistently volatile, fast-changing and increasingly dangerous new world order.

As we absorb the outcomes of the World Economic Forum held in Davos, corporate communities must grapple with the combination of a new world order, constant change and rising levels of insecurity. There has never been a more critical time to review the quality of actionable intelligence that successful organisations require not only to prosper and grow, but in some cases simply to survive.

Intelligence is not about understanding what is already known, but about focusing on the unknown. It is about identifying what is not known – the blind spots and gaps in stakeholders’ knowledge when developing plans, assessing risk or making mission-critical decisions. It is often the small but critical issues missed by early-warning radar, combined with misplaced assumptions, that lead to expensive and sometimes existential mistakes.

Amid global controversy, an era of increased tariffs has been ignited over the last year as a political weapon by the new US administration. Based on recent meetings in Davos, and despite broad misgivings, this flawed tactic does not appear to be going away.

The threat of US tariffs significantly increases the need to invest in world-class market intelligence capabilities. Tariffs increase global uncertainty by creating volatile markets, disrupting complex supply chains, altering trade flows and raising costs for businesses both inside and outside the US.

Tariffs introduce policy uncertainty, forcing companies to:

• Urgently track shifting regulations

• Review standards

• Gain insight into competitor strategies

• Identify new market opportunities

• Understand economic shifts in order to remain both resilient and competitive

Impacts driving demand for actionable intelligence:

Supply Chain Reconfiguration:

The threat of tariffs can force businesses to find new suppliers, partners, collaborations and markets. This can lead to the need for “deep dives” into new entities or market scanning in new regions across the globe. This requires feasibility studies, primary market research expertise and, in addition, fuels demand for export and market advisory services.

Increased Costs and Inflation:

Although not always appreciated, tariffs act as taxes on inputs, raising costs for US-based manufacturers while also increasing prices for importers, distribution channels and therefore consumers. This creates demand for intelligence on price elasticity, price benchmarking and cost pass-through.

Market Volatility and Uncertainty:

Sudden policy changes create unpredictable market conditions. This requires constant monitoring of geopolitical developments, retaliatory actions and scenario planning, as well as understanding their effects on commodities, currencies and, most importantly, stock markets.

Shifting Competitive Dynamics:

Companies with an international outlook must understand how rivals – both domestic and overseas – are adapting and changing. Are they absorbing increased costs, opening new production facilities, actively recruiting new staff, or pursuing new partnerships and market-entry strategies? This creates demand for high-calibre, time-bound market intelligence on competitor strategies in order to formulate appropriate and effective responses. The value of the intelligence produced remains directly correlated to its proximity to key decisions.

New Opportunities and Risks:

While tariffs create increased risk for some, they also open new avenues of opportunity for others (for example, companies re-routing trade and shipping). This necessitates timely intelligence to identify these changes, emerging niches and the potential for disruption.

How top-performing CI/MI-literate businesses should respond by increasing the quality and flow of actionable intelligence:

Scenario Planning and Wargaming:

Businesses need intelligence to model potential outcomes of ongoing trade disputes and policy shifts.

Commercial Excellence Programmes with Built-in Resilience:

Intelligence helps build resilient supply chains and strategies to withstand shocks. A primary “voice of customer” or “win-loss” research programme can highlight areas that are sub-optimal and require improvement in order to remain or become competitive.

Creation of Foresight and Early-Warning Radar with Proactive Adaptation:

Companies need real-time data on trade flows and policy changes, together with a deep understanding of competitor behaviour, in order to pivot quickly with greater foresight.

In essence, tariffs – or more importantly, the very threat of tariffs – transform the business environment from relatively stable and predictable to highly dynamic. Like economies, businesses prefer stability. Instability makes deep, continuous market and competitive assessment a critical tool for executives to embrace and a foundation for survival and growth.

Action-oriented market intelligence is a form of time-bound commercial due diligence that supports leaders in navigating the turbulent and unpredictable nature of global business that we are all experiencing today.